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Odds and Statistics – How to Use Analytical Data to Win

To succeed in sports betting, it's crucial to understand the relationship between odds and statistics. Odds reflect the probability of various outcomes, while statistics is a tool that helps you assess whether an odd has value. By analyzing relevant data and identifying patterns, you can develop a more effective strategy.

In this guide, we explain how you can use statistics to interpret odds correctly and take your betting to the next level.

What Are Odds?

Odds are a numerical representation of probabilities and play a central role in all betting strategies. At Bethard, odds are determined through a combination of statistics and real-time analysis of team form, individual player performance, weather conditions, and other crucial factors.

How Are Odds Written?

Odds can be expressed in various formats depending on where you play and the type of odds format being used:

- Decimal Odds: Common in Europe. For example, odds of 2.00 indicate that a bet of 100 SEK will return 200 SEK if you win.

- Fractional Odds: Common in the UK. These are written with a slash or fraction symbol. For instance, odds of 5/1 mean you will win five times your stake.

- American Odds: Also known as moneyline odds or US odds, these are mainly used in the US and Canada and are popular in sports like American football (NFL), basketball (NBA), baseball, and hockey. For example, +200 means you win 200 with a 100 bet, while -150 means you need to bet 150 to win 100.

Learn to Read Odds

Understanding and interpreting odds correctly is a critical skill for maximizing your bets. By comparing different probabilities with your own analysis, you can identify which odds offer real value. It's not just about picking winners; it's about finding opportunities where the odds don't reflect the actual probability. The better you become at recognizing these differences, the greater your advantage will be.

There are generally two types of odds:

- Overpriced Odds: When the odds are higher than the actual probability, benefiting the player.

- Underpriced Odds: When the odds are lower than the probability, benefiting the bookmaker.

Example of probability calculation for different odds:

- Odds of 2.00: Represents a 50% probability.

Calculation: (1 / 2.00) * 100 = 50%

- Odds of 1.50: Represents a 66.6% probability.

Calculation: (1 / 1.50) * 100 = 66.6%
This means there is about a two-thirds chance that, for example, Real Madrid will win against Valencia.

Statistics in Sports Betting

Statistics is the best tool for interpreting odds. By analyzing previous matches, you can get a clearer picture of likely outcomes. But which types of statistics should you focus on, and where can you find reliable data?

Which Statistics Matter?

- Team Form: Historical data on past performance and recent results.

- Goals Average: The average number of goals per match.

- Conceded Goals: Important for defensive analysis.

- Injuries and Suspensions: Key factors that can influence match outcomes.

- xG (Expected Goals): A statistical measure of goal chances based on factors such as shot distance, angle, and the number of defenders.

- Player Performance Index (PPI): A method for ranking player performance based on minutes played, goals, assists, and defensive work.

Keep in mind that the type of statistics will vary depending on the sport. For example, ball possession, passing accuracy, and xG are relevant in football, while shooting percentage and turnovers are crucial in basketball. In motorsport, such as F1, sector times and pole positions are key metrics, while tennis statistics focus on serve percentage, break points, and surface adaptation.

Where Can You Find Good Statistics?

- Official League Websites: Provide the most reliable information and exclusive content (e.g., Premier League, La Liga, NFL, and NBA).

- Sports Data Platforms: Offer detailed and in-depth analysis of team performance, real-time stats, and historical data (e.g., Flashscore and Statista).

- Social Media: Less reliable but can provide a variety of perspectives, interactivity, coach comments, and quick analyses before matches.

Take Your Betting to the Next Level with Bethard

We offer a wide range of sports betting options and live-streamed matches from major leagues. At Bethard, you can bet on popular markets in football, hockey, basketball, golf, and more. We also provide the opportunity to bet live with real-time odds updates.

Get started with sports betting at Bethard:

1. Click the PLAY HERE button in the top right corner.

2. Open your BankID app and scan the QR code that appears in the registration window.

3. Navigate to the Odds or Live Odds section to place your bet.

FAQ

How Do Odds Work?

Odds represent the probability of a specific event occurring in a match or competition, such as a team winning, a player scoring, or a match ending in a draw.

How Can I Find the Best Odds?

To find value bets and make smarter bets, compare statistics from various sources with the current odds.

How Important Is Statistics in Sports Betting?

Statistics help you make more informed bets and identify value opportunities.

Can You Win Using Statistics?

Statistics is a powerful tool but does not guarantee wins. The best approach is to combine analysis and strategy to develop a more stable and successful betting method.